US August Non-Farm Payrolls Data Fell Far Below Expectations, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Rangebound [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of September 8, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2510) fluctuated rangebound, closing at 269,990 yuan/mt during the midday break, down 0.83% from the previous trading session.

The price briefly fell below 270,000 yuan/mt during the session, with trading activity showing slight recovery but overall market sentiment remaining cautious. Fundamentally, the tin market currently exhibits weak supply and demand dynamics: Supply side, affected by Myanmar's rainy season and delayed production resumptions (actual ore output from Wa region is expected to be postponed to Q4), China's tin concentrates imports continued to contract (down 34.8% YoY, January-July), while Yunnan smelters maintained low operating rates due to tight raw material inventory, with planned concentrated maintenance in September likely to further constrain supply.

Demand side, performance remained sluggish due to the electronics industry's traditional off-season and post-PV installation rush order decline. Operating rates at solder manufacturers in South China dropped significantly, and despite slight recovery in semiconductor sector demand, downstream procurement remained primarily need-based.

Macro perspective, the US August non-farm payrolls data fell significantly below expectations (only 22,000 new jobs added) with unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, strengthening market expectations for a September US Fed interest rate cut. The weakening US dollar provided some support to commodity prices. However, potential impacts from Trump's tariff policies on the semiconductor industry chain and insufficient seasonal demand during China's September-October peak season continued to limit tin price upside room. Inventory-wise, LME tin stocks increased slightly recently (up 205 mt to 2,155 mt in August), but global visible inventory remained at historically low levels, providing floor support for prices.

Short-term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to move sideways within the 260,000-280,000 yuan/mt range, with attention advised on the upcoming US CPI data and downstream restocking trends.